“Stage-Managing” War

It was the opening day of the Olympics in Beijing.  Europe’s annual month of vacation had just begun.  The United States was approaching the peak of its Presidential Campaign season with the presumptive nominee of the challenging Party vacationing in Hawaii.  George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin were photographed seated next to each other during the opening ceremonies for the China Olympics in Bird’s Nest Stadium. 

If anyone held the belief that the Olympics represented peace among nations through sports, the events unfolding in South Ossetia presented a serious challenge to that belief.  NPR broadcast two reports that Friday afternoon, August 8, 2008, that armed conflict erupted in the Georgian province of South Ossetia on the opening day of the Olympic Games. 

The report from NPR’s Moscow correspondent, Gregory Feifer, described the violence in South Ossetia as the result of Russian armored vehicles crossing into the Georgian breakaway province.  Presumably they were moving in to assist the existing Russian peacekeepers, in the event that Georgia’s recently signed cease-fire with South Ossetia didn’t hold.  Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili was quoted as having had no choice but to defend the Georgian citizens, seeing Russian military vehicles and tanks crossing into that mountainous region of their country in South Ossetia.

NPR’s second report about the conflict that afternoon was an interview with Assistant Professor Lincoln Mitchell, from Columbia University’s School of International Affairs, by Melissa Block.  The short interview gives a brief history of conflict in the region, looking from both the perspective of Russia and of Georgia.

NPR also hosts a main report page titled, “Russia, Georgia Fight Over Breakaway Region.”  It features a collection of articles, interviews, and reports produced by NPR since the beginning of the conflict in South Ossetia.

 On Monday, C-SPAN broadcast a panel discussion hosted by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.  This discussion, with a 20-minute question and answer session, was moderated by Thomas Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute and the panelists included:

• Frederick W. Kagan (American Enterprise Institute)
• Lt. Col. Ralph Peters (U.S. Army, Retired)
• Lt. Col. Bob Hamilton (U.S. Army)
• Leon Aron (American Enterprise Institute)

This presentation at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) was titled, “The War in the Caucasus: An Initial Assessment.”  Recordings in video or audio format, and other media presented at this forum are available at no charge at this AEI web site.  The idea that the timing and other factors surrounding the conflict made it a “stage-managed war,” was put forward by Retired Lt. Col. Ralph Peters, the second speaker on the panel.

It’s easy to get subjective accounts of how this happened.  It may not be possible to do otherwise because even the most objective of news services must rely on often subjective accounts from their sources.  The best most of us can really expect is to get a sense of what’s happened and how it might affect the future in a context that is relevant to each of us as individuals.

Throughout the week, the first week of the Olympic Games in Beijing, there were many blog posts and articles posted on the internet that presented many different points of view.  A wide range of views were offered by vareious news services:

• FACTBOX – Georgia’s importance as an energy transit state
• The Georgian war – minute by minute, August 9
• Georgia ‘pulls out of S Ossetia’
• Georgia Conflict Map, August 11
• Financial Times – Russia must stand down by Joseph Biden
• CNN.com – McCain pushes hard line against Russia; aides attack Obama
• Does Nationalism Play Role in Georgia Conflict?
• Excerpt of Transcript: Gorbachev Interview on CNN Larry King Live
• Day-by-day: Georgia-Russia crisis

Personal and thoughtful perspectives were offered on various personal blogs:

• Report of a friend who has been to Georgia
• The Fall of the Nation State  
• It’s a very dangerous road the U.S.A. and Russia are traveling….in opposite directions
• Official U.S. Response: ‘…derailing [Russia in] Georgia makes no sense…’
• Nevada Mojo Rising: Fox News cuts off 12-year girl who survived bombing in Ossetia

C-SPAN broadcast a press conference presented by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RDE/RL) on Friday, at the end of that first week.  Audio and video are available at both the C-SPAN and the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty websites.  A transcript of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty press conference may be found in pdf-format at their web site.

One of the most striking comments made in the C-SPAN broadcast was an observation made by RDE/RL’s Georgian Service Director, David Kakabadze:  “You have to take into account that this is the only pipeline which bypasses Russia and pumps the Caspian oil to the world markets, and this is a very important point.“

Some individual bloggers believe this is an attempt on the part of Russia to influence the outcome of the Presidential Election in the U.S.  Some feel it has roots in tribal conflicts.  Some feel the primary motivation is control of energy supplies to western Europe.  These ideas, among others, are likely all components of the motivations that have led to this armed conflict (or war).

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As stated in the author’s Profile for this blog, the motivation for this writing this blog is education.  There are many points of view that are not represented here because there are so many sources that it’s impossible to include them all and keep the length of this post reasonable.

While the U.S. Presidential Election will likely be influenced by these events, which candidate will be better suited to deal effectively with the unstable situation on the Georgian-Russian border? 

For either candidate, which of the likely Vice-President short-list picks would be best suited to strengthen the Presidential Candidate’s ticket in the November election, in light of the events in South Ossatia? 

If tribal loyalities and language play a role in the Georgian-Russian confict, how might this play into how the American people choose the next President?

For the U.S. and its allies, does energy play a small or large part in this conflict?

I hope the few readers that happen to read this blog, or receive it forwarded to them from a friend, will feel inclined to explore some of the links included in this post.  Whether the links draw further exploration or not, I am very interested to hear the point of view, in the Comments sectionm, of anyone who reads this.

If you have happend to have read this entire blog entry, thank you!  Please leave a comment.  Even if you haven’t read or explored the entire post, your comments will certainly help to move the discussion forward.

I welcome them and I look forward to reading all points of view!